Here are some quick picks for DFS this week on Draftkings:
QB – Aaron Rodgers (8000) Not as chalky a pick as you might expect, people seem to be shying away from these two, I think the chalk this week is Tom Brady and I’m find fading him. I think Rodgers and Luck will be under owned in Cash and GPP and are worth rostering in both. I’d add that if Lynch does not play, Russell Wilson must be considering in all cash lineups.
Value QB – Cam Newton (6800) A lot of touts are on Cam this week and its simple why, he has been running the ball more than ever, they are in a good division match-up at home vs. the Brees-less Saints. In GPPs you might be able to get away without stacking him, but you can consider Greg Olsen and even Ted Ginn to stack with in GPP.
RB – Le’Veon Bell (7500) He’s back.
Value RB – C.J. Spiller (4800) Carolina is giving up 80 receiving yards a game to opposing running backs this year. With Brees out I expect a lot of targets and a large play increase for Spiller. Mike Triplett of ESPN’s Saints reporter expects Spiller to be heavily involved in this weeks gameplan.
WR – Randall Cobb (7300) I can’t find a reason that Cobb, A.J. Green, and Julian Edelman are priced in the group they are, but I expect them all to see an increase next week. This week I’m targeting Cobb as the KC defense looks horrible against the pass and was recently torched by fellow slot guy Emmanuel Sanders for 8 Rec, 87 yards, and 2 TDs.
Value WR – Doug Baldin (4000) Leads the Seahawks in targets, back to back 7 catch games, and is going up against Chicago, not only the worst pass defense in football, but they also rank dead last in defensive efficiency (FootballOutsiders) vs. WR #1’s. Considering Byron Maxwell’s season for the Eagles, ranking below them is hard to do. Give me Baldwin with the high floor as he should see more of the same targets and potentially more if Lynch is out or limited.
TE – Gronk (doesnt matter). Seriously. No really this isn’t a joke, just start Gronk in all cash games.
DEF – Seattle looks to be worthy of the top spot and if you can afford them go for it, but since we’re paying up for gronk go ahead and grab whoever you can afford.
GPP Tournament Plays
QB – Cam Newton (see above)
Value QB – Andy Dalton (5700) I was tempted to go Mariota here and I do think he is still a good play at home, but Andy Dalton is priced crazy low and the Ravens pass defense does not scare me. Jimmy Smith was torched by A.J. Green last year but if you wanted to be a little contrarian I would look at Marvin Jones for the stack, Baltimore has given up 116 yards a game to WR #2’s this season.
RB – Justin Forsett (6000) Avoiding the chalk because the top 4 guys are all worth rostering this week, you didn’t come here for that. I like Forsett because he will be under-owned given recency bias plus he has a great match-up to do some receiving damage. Cincinatti is ranked last in defensive efficiency against the pass vs. RBs this season. Maybe its time Forsett has a breakout receiving game despite losing red zone touches to Taliaferro.
Value RB – James Starks/Fred Jackson/Chris Polk Pay attention to the game inactives, If Lynch is out Fred Jackson becomes a solid play, if Grimes is out Polk becomes a 3 down back, and Starks is interesting but plays on Monday, so not much wiggle room there. In addition I like Legarrette Blount and Duke Johnson at their prices. High risk plays but they have potential to lead each of their teams in carries.
WR – Allen Robinson (5200) I realize recency bias will give Robinson some high ownership this week, but I think it’s well worth it. The Patriots rank dead last in passing defense efficiency on balls thrown to the left side of the field. Robinson’s numbers on the left this season? 128 yards, 2 TDs
Value WR – Ted Ginn Jr. (3300) Not many guys who lead there team in receiving can be had for 300 over the min price. As I mentioned earlier, stack him with Cam if you want, you could even add in the Panthers defense (see below).
Value TE(aka if not Gronk then who?) – Eric Ebron (3300) A decent cheap guy who could see some targets given how good Denver’s outside DBs are. Averaging a TD per game and potential to be playing from behind as the only guy open, you could do much worse for 3300 (for example, spending ANY of it on Travis Benjamin. Please don’t ever roster Travis Benjamin in DFS or real fantasy unless you are in a league with me, then please go ahead)
DEF – Panthers (3100) Like I mentioned, great match-up and fun GPP potential if Ginn were to break one for a TD. Even without special teams, they should have a solid day against the ‘Aints.
Sneaky GPP Punts:
QB Nick Foles (5200)
RB Lance Dunbar (3200)
WR Kenny Britt (3800)
TE Coby Fleener (3000)